10 Cities Where the Housing Crash Still Looms Largest
In 2003, as real estate prices were starting to go through the roof, Greg Merrill and his wife bought a 1,900-square foot, four-bedroom home with vaulted ceilings on a quiet cul-de-sac in Yucaipa, Calif., for nearly $240,000. Then came the real estate crash, and within a few years their home's value dropped to $225,000.
The Merrills were among the fortunate few who could afford to wait it out. "We didn't plan on flipping the house. So it was just a matter of keep on, keepin' on," says Greg, an elementary school teacher who works in nearby San Bernardino. A decade later, the Merrills' home is estimated to be worth more than $350,000.
Alas, the vast majority of their neighbors haven't been quite so lucky.
Ten years after the mortgage meltdown, only 3.4% of the homes in the Riverside/San Bernardino market have recovered to their pre-housing crisis peaks, according to a report by Trulia. The average home in this metro area costs about $323,000 — roughly 20% below pre-2007 levels.
Sadly, San Bernardino isn't unique. Much of the country still hasn't recovered fully despite several years of a real estate "recovery."
While it's true that national home prices have rebounded on average and are hitting new highs in this economic recovery, only 34% of houses in the U.S. have actually come all the way back, according to Trulia.
"The big surprise is if you're using broad measures to gauge the housing recovery, they're not that good for measuring how well the individual markets have done," says Trulia chief economist Ralph McLaughlin. "By looking at other measures you might think that most homes have recovered, instead of only a third."
Trulia compared current home values to pre-recession highs in the nation's 100 biggest metro areas. The markets that have fared the absolute best — like Denver, where almost 99% of homes are above their pre-crisis prices — are enjoying double-digit income and job growth.
The worst 10 markets, listed below, have either struggled economically or had to dig out of a really deep hole — or both.
The BOTTOM 10 MARKETS
Las Vegas
Percentage of homes back at pre-recession levels: 0.6%
Current home value: $214,630
Pre-recession peak home value: $306,028
Post-recession income growth: -5.2%
Post-recession job growth: 18.4%
Post-recession population growth: 11.2%
Tucson, Ariz.
Percentage of homes back at pre-recession levels: 2.4%
Current home value: $179,194
Pre-recession peak home value: $236,236
Post-recession income growth: 4.8%
Post-recession job growth: 2.2%
Post-recession population growth: 4.2%
Fresno, Calif.
Percentage of homes back at pre-recession levels: 2.5%
Current home value: $217,818
Pre-recession peak home value: $295, 518
Post-recession income growth: 5.1%
Post-recession job growth: 10.8%
Post-recession population growth: 6.3%
Camden, N.J.
Percentage of homes back at pre-recession levels: 2.7%
Current home value: $195,813
Pre-recession peak home value: $244,536
Post-recession income growth: 6.4%
Post-recession job growth: 0.5%
Post-recession population growth: 0.3%
Lake County-Kenosha County, Ill. & Wis.
Percentage of homes back at pre-recession levels: 2.7%
Current home value: $215,616
Pre-recession peak home value: $260,850
Post-recession income growth: 10.2%
Post-recession job growth: 9.8%
Post-recession population growth: 0.5%
Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
Percentage of homes back at pre-recession levels: 2.7%
Current home value: $227,425
Pre-recession peak home value: $295,100
Post-recession income growth: 9.4%
Post-recession job growth: 9.9%
Post-recession population growth: 10.2%
Bakersfield, Calif.
Percentage of homes back at pre-recession levels: 2.9%
Current home value: $191,435
Pre-recession peak home value: $276,213
Post-recession income growth: 12.8%
Post-recession job growth: 13.1%
Post-recession population growth: 6.6%
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.
Percentage of homes back at pre-recession levels: 2.9%
Current home value: $176,654
Pre-recession peak home value: $238,423
Post-recession income growth: -1.7%
Post-recession job growth: 11.5%
Post-recession population growth: 8.2%
